WRONG TRACK – AT 10:22 A.M. ET:  The right track/wrong track polls, measuring whether voters feel the country is heading right or wrong, are often seen as general predictors of elections, although the record is mixed.  The latest poll, reported Monday, is from Rasmussen:   

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Likely U.S. Voters think the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey for the week ending September 29.

That is an abysmally low figure.

The national telephone survey of 2,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from September 25-29, 2016. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

And this morning Rasmussen was out with its latest tracker, showing progress for the Trump/Pence ticket:

The two major presidential candidates remain in a dead heat, but Donald Trump has regained the edge.

The latest Rasmussen Reports White House Watch survey shows Trump with 42% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Hillary Clinton’s 41%. Yesterday, it was the other way around, Clinton 42%, Trump 41%, and the day before Clinton had a 43% to 40% advantage. This is the first time Trump has been ahead since before the first presidential debate last week.

Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson earns eight percent (8%) support in the latest survey, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein remains at two percent (2%). Another two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Among the 82% of voters who say they are certain how they will vote, Trump leads 48% to 47%. Among those who say they still could change their minds, it’s Trump 32%, Clinton 30%, Johnson 27% and Stein 11%.

This survey was largely completed prior to last night’s debate between Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine and Trump’s running mate Mike Pence.

COMMENT:  We should stress that Rasmussen tilts slightly Republican.  Other polls show Clinton ahead, by an average of 3-4 points.  Last night's debate might give the Trump ticket a small boost.  It certainly did not help the Clinton ticket. 

We are four days away from the next presidential debate.  Projecting ahead, it's possible we'll go into that debate with a very close race, featuring a small Clinton lead.

October 5, 2016